S&P Global Mobility expects U.S. sales volumes to reach 15.9 million units in 2024, an estimated increase of 2.0 percent from the projected 2023 level of 15.5 million units. 

“Just when the auto industry is looking to return to a sense of normalcy from the supply side of the equation, U.S. consumers in the market for new vehicles in 2024 will continue to face affordability issues by way of high interest rates, tight credit conditions and slow-to-recede new vehicle prices,” says Chris Hopson, manager of North American light vehicle sales forecasting for S&P Global Mobility. “An uncertain consumer translates to an expectation of a mildly progressing auto sales environment next year.” 

“With an assumption that auto production levels will continue to advance in 2024, growth of new-vehicle inventory presents the opportunity for rising incentive levels and deal making, a potential release valve to the vehicle price pressures realized over the last year,” Hopson adds.  

With the rollout of several highly anticipated models, U.S. BEV sales will continue to develop in the new year.  By the end of 2024, there will be nearly 100 BEV models available, double the number there were in 2022, covering several more segments and providing consumers interested in an electric vehicle even more choice.

For the North American region, overall production is expected to make a small gain, 0.5 percent, at 15.7 million units, boosted by 3.9-percent growth in U.S. activity. Inventory restocking continues to provide an upside, but is not uniform, with pockets of the Detroit-3’s lineup overstocked while Japanese and Korean brands still have a pipeline to fill. 

While supply-chain conditions undoubtedly have improved since 2022, S&P Global Mobility continues to warn of a structural deficit in capacity for semiconductors, notably older mature nodes. There was theoretical overcapacity in 2023 as demand from other industries eased, they say, but there remains a risk that constraints could resurface once demand from other sectors recovers.

“We do not foresee chip-supply problems in 2024 as allocation for automotive is robust and is bolstered by recent stockpiling of chips by the vehicle makers,” says Jeremie Bouchaud, director, semiconductor, E/E and autonomy practice, S&P Global Mobility. "But 2025 could be a bottleneck if non-automotive demand comes back strongly.” 

Regarding electrification, the past few years have seen many OEMs reaffirming electrification ambitions for the coming 5 to 15 yr. More recently the narrative has shifted, with some automakers highlighting the twin challenges of the electrification transition—scaling output of sellable BEVs and finding willing customers to buy them.  

Reports of the demise of electric vehicles have been greatly exaggerated, with S&P Global Mobility projecting global sales for battery-electric passenger vehicles to be on track to post 13.3 million units for 2024, accounting for an estimated 16.2 percent of global passenger vehicle sales. For reference, 2023 posted an estimated 9.6 million BEVs, for 12-percent market share. 

Technologies: Management

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