Paul Nathanson
Carolyn SpectorThe Final Countdown to the 2024 Election
September 20, 2024Comments
Leaves have begun to fall from the trees and Halloween decorations are up, which means that election day in the United States is just around the corner. Former President Trump has unified Republicans and with President Biden exiting the campaign back in July, the Harris-Walz campaign has reinvigorated Democrats. The race is tight, and we are in the final sprint to see who will take the White House come January 2025.
What do we know so far? The outcome likely will hinge on seven states: the Rust Belt (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) and the Sun Belt (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina). Five of these states flipped from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020, with margins of three percentage points or less.
For policies impacting manufacturers, both political parties have embraced tariffs as a key component of international trade policy. Trump says he will impose a “universal baseline tariff” of at least 10 percent, a policy that Harris referred to as a “national sales tax” that would hurt middle-class families. The Harris-Walz campaign has stated that a Harris administration would “employ targeted and strategic tariffs to support American workers.” Her campaign suggests a more targeted approach to tariffs, continuing President Biden’s trade agenda, with a potentially “greener” emphasis. The Biden administration has maintained the Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum imports originally implemented by the Trump Administration in 2018, and it is unlikely that a Harris administration would seek an immediate pullback on these tariffs.
Another topic we see both candidates agreeing on: opposing Nippon Steel’s planned purchase of U.S. Steel. During a campaign appearance on Labor Day in Pittsburgh, PA, Harris voiced her opposition to the sale, saying, “U.S. Steel should remain American-owned and American-operated,” echoing President Biden’s public opposition to the acquisition back in March of this year. Similarly, former President Trump repeatedly has promised to block the planned purchase of U.S. Steel if voted into office in November.
